Using linear and natural cubic splines, SITAR, and latent trajectory models to characterise nonlinear longitudinal growth trajectories in cohort studies

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal data analysis can improve our understanding of the influences on health trajectories across the life-course. There are a variety of statistical models which can be used, and their fitting and interpretation can be complex, particularly where there is a nonlinear trajectory. Our aim was to provide an accessible guide along with applied examples to using four sophisticated modelling procedures for describing nonlinear growth trajectories. METHODS: This expository paper provides an illustrative guide to summarising nonlinear growth trajectories for repeatedly measured continuous outcomes using (i) linear spline and (ii) natural cubic spline linear mixed-effects (LME) models, (iii) Super Imposition by Translation and Rotation (SITAR) nonlinear mixed effects models, and (iv) latent trajectory models. The underlying model for each approach, their similarities and differences, and their advantages and disadvantages are described. Their application and correct interpretation of their results is illustrated by analysing repeated bone mass measures to characterise bone growth patterns and their sex differences in three cohort studies from the UK, USA, and Canada comprising 8500 individuals and 37,000 measurements from ages 5-40 years. Recommendations for choosing a modelling approach are provided along with a discussion and signposting on further modelling extensions for analysing trajectory exposures and outcomes, and multiple cohorts. RESULTS: Linear and natural cubic spline LME models and SITAR provided similar summary of the mean bone growth trajectory and growth velocity, and the sex differences in growth patterns. Growth velocity (in grams/year) peaked during adolescence, and peaked earlier in females than males e.g., mean age at peak bone mineral content accrual from multicohort SITAR models was 12.2 years in females and 13.9 years in males. Latent trajectory models (with trajectory shapes estimated using a natural cubic spline) identified up to four subgroups of individuals with distinct trajectories throughout adolescence. CONCLUSIONS: LME models with linear and natural cubic splines, SITAR, and latent trajectory models are useful for describing nonlinear growth trajectories, and these methods can be adapted for other complex traits. Choice of method depends on the research aims, complexity of the trajectory, and available data. Scripts and synthetic datasets are provided for readers to replicate trajectory modelling and visualisation using the R statistical computing software

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Measurement of the inclusive and differential Higgs boson production cross sections in the decay mode to a pair of τ Leptons in pp collisions at sqrt[s]=13 TeV

Measurements of the inclusive and differential fiducial cross sections of the Higgs boson are presented, using the τ lepton decay channel. The differential cross sections are measured as functions of the Higgs boson transverse momentum, jet multiplicity, and transverse momentum of the leading jet in the event, if any. The analysis is performed using proton-proton collision data collected with the CMS detector at the LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13  TeV and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138  fb^{-1}. These are the first differential measurements of the Higgs boson cross section in the final state of two τ leptons. In final states with a large jet multiplicity or with a Lorentz-boosted Higgs boson, these measurements constitute a significant improvement over measurements performed in other final states

Observation of triple J/ψ meson production in proton-proton collisions

Data availability: Tabulated results are provided in the HEPData record for this analysis71. Release and preservation of data used by the CMS Collaboration as the basis for publications is guided by the CMS policy as stated in CMS data preservation, re-use and open access policy.Code availability: The CMS core software is publically available at https://github.com/cms-sw/cmssw.Copyright . Protons consist of three valence quarks, two up-quarks and one down-quark, held together by gluons and a sea of quark-antiquark pairs. Collectively, quarks and gluons are referred to as partons. In a proton-proton collision, typically only one parton of each proton undergoes a hard scattering – referred to as single-parton scattering – leaving the remainder of each proton only slightly disturbed. Here, we report the study of double- and triple-parton scatterings through the simultaneous production of three J/ψ mesons, which consist of a charm quark-antiquark pair, in proton-proton collisions recorded with the CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. We observed this process – reconstructed through the decays of J/ψ mesons into pairs of oppositely charged muons – with a statistical significance above five standard deviations. We measured the inclusive fiducial cross-section to be 272+141−104(stat)±17(syst)fb, and compared it to theoretical expectations for triple-J/ψ meson production in single-, double- and triple-parton scattering scenarios. Assuming factorization of multiple hard-scattering probabilities in terms of single-parton scattering cross-sections, double- and triple-parton scattering are the dominant contributions for the measured process.SCOAP3.Change history: 27 February 2023A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-023-01992-

A new calibration method for charm jet identification validated with proton-proton collision events at √s = 13 TeV

ArXiv ePrint: 2111.03027Copyright © 2022 CERN for the benefit of the CMS collaboration. Many measurements at the LHC require efficient identification of heavy-flavour jets, i.e. jets originating from bottom (b) or charm (c) quarks. An overview of the algorithms used to identify c jets is described and a novel method to calibrate them is presented. This new method adjusts the entire distributions of the outputs obtained when the algorithms are applied to jets of different flavours. It is based on an iterative approach exploiting three distinct control regions that are enriched with either b jets, c jets, or light-flavour and gluon jets. Results are presented in the form of correction factors evaluated using proton-proton collision data with an integrated luminosity of 41.5 fb-1 at  √s = 13 TeV, collected by the CMS experiment in 2017. The closure of the method is tested by applying the measured correction factors on simulated data sets and checking the agreement between the adjusted simulation and collision data. Furthermore, a validation is performed by testing the method on pseudodata, which emulate various mismodelling conditions. The calibrated results enable the use of the full distributions of heavy-flavour identification algorithm outputs, e.g. as inputs to machine-learning models. Thus, they are expected to increase the sensitivity of future physics analyses.SCOAP

A portrait of the Higgs boson by the CMS experiment ten years after the discovery

A Correction to this paper has been published (18 October 2023) : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06164-8.Data availability: Tabulated results are provided in the HEPData record for this analysis. Release and preservation of data used by the CMS Collaboration as the basis for publications is guided by the CMS data preservation, re-use and open acess policy.Code availability: The CMS core software is publicly available on GitHub (https://github.com/cms-sw/cmssw).In July 2012, the ATLAS and CMS collaborations at the CERN Large Hadron Collider announced the observation of a Higgs boson at a mass of around 125 gigaelectronvolts. Ten years later, and with the data corresponding to the production of a 30-times larger number of Higgs bosons, we have learnt much more about the properties of the Higgs boson. The CMS experiment has observed the Higgs boson in numerous fermionic and bosonic decay channels, established its spin–parity quantum numbers, determined its mass and measured its production cross-sections in various modes. Here the CMS Collaboration reports the most up-to-date combination of results on the properties of the Higgs boson, including the most stringent limit on the cross-section for the production of a pair of Higgs bosons, on the basis of data from proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 teraelectronvolts. Within the uncertainties, all these observations are compatible with the predictions of the standard model of elementary particle physics. Much evidence points to the fact that the standard model is a low-energy approximation of a more comprehensive theory. Several of the standard model issues originate in the sector of Higgs boson physics. An order of magnitude larger number of Higgs bosons, expected to be examined over the next 15 years, will help deepen our understanding of this crucial sector.BMBWF and FWF (Austria); FNRS and FWO (Belgium); CNPq, CAPES, FAPERJ, FAPERGS, and FAPESP (Brazil); MES and BNSF (Bulgaria); CERN; CAS, MoST, and NSFC (China); MINCIENCIAS (Colombia); MSES and CSF (Croatia); RIF (Cyprus); SENESCYT (Ecuador); MoER, ERC PUT and ERDF (Estonia); Academy of Finland, MEC, and HIP (Finland); CEA and CNRS/IN2P3 (France); BMBF, DFG, and HGF (Germany); GSRI (Greece); NKFIH (Hungary); DAE and DST (India); IPM (Iran); SFI (Ireland); INFN (Italy); MSIP and NRF (Republic of Korea); MES (Latvia); LAS (Lithuania); MOE and UM (Malaysia); BUAP, CINVESTAV, CONACYT, LNS, SEP, and UASLP-FAI (Mexico); MOS (Montenegro); MBIE (New Zealand); PAEC (Pakistan); MES and NSC (Poland); FCT (Portugal); MESTD (Serbia); MCIN/AEI and PCTI (Spain); MOSTR (Sri Lanka); Swiss Funding Agencies (Switzerland); MST (Taipei); MHESI and NSTDA (Thailand); TUBITAK and TENMAK (Turkey); NASU (Ukraine); STFC (United Kingdom); DOE and NSF (USA). Individuals have received support from the Marie-Curie programme and the European Research Council and Horizon 2020 Grant, contract Nos. 675440, 724704, 752730, 758316, 765710, 824093, 884104, and COST Action CA16108 (European Union); the Leventis Foundation; the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation; the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office; the Fonds pour la Formation à la Recherche dans l’Industrie et dans l’Agriculture (FRIA-Belgium); the Agentschap voor Innovatie door Wetenschap en Technologie (IWT-Belgium); the F.R.S.-FNRS and FWO (Belgium) under the “Excellence of Science – EOS” – be.h project n. 30820817; the Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission, No. Z191100007219010; the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) of the Czech Republic; the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (Greece); the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), under Germany’s Excellence Strategy – EXC 2121 “Quantum Universe” – 390833306, and under project number 400140256 - GRK2497; the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, the New National Excellence Program - ÚNKP, the NKFIH research grants K 124845, K 124850, K 128713, K 128786, K 129058, K 131991, K 133046, K 138136, K 143460, K 143477, 2020-2.2.1-ED-2021-00181, and TKP2021-NKTA-64 (Hungary); the Council of Science and Industrial Research, India; the Latvian Council of Science; the Ministry of Education and Science, project no. 2022/WK/14, and the National Science Center, contracts Opus 2021/41/B/ST2/01369 and 2021/43/B/ST2/01552 (Poland); the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, grant CEECIND/01334/2018 (Portugal); the National Priorities Research Program by Qatar National Research Fund; MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, ERDF “a way of making Europe”, and the Programa Estatal de Fomento de la Investigación Científica y Técnica de Excelencia María de Maeztu, grant MDM-2017-0765 and Programa Severo Ochoa del Principado de Asturias (Spain); the Chulalongkorn Academic into Its 2nd Century Project Advancement Project, and the National Science, Research and Innovation Fund via the Program Management Unit for Human Resources & Institutional Development, Research and Innovation, grant B05F650021 (Thailand); the Kavli Foundation; the Nvidia Corporation; the SuperMicro Corporation; the Welch Foundation, contract C-1845; and the Weston Havens Foundation (USA)

Search for a massive scalar resonance decaying to a light scalar and a Higgs boson in the four b quarks final state with boosted topology

Data availability: Release and preservation of data used by the CMS Collaboration as the basis for publications is guided by the CMS policy as stated in “CMS data preservation, re-use and open access policy”.Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). We search for new massive scalar particles X and Y through the resonant process X → YH → bb¯bb¯,, where H is the standard model Higgs boson. Data from CERN LHC proton-proton collisions are used, collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2016–2018 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. The search is performed in mass ranges of 0.9–4 TeV for X and 60–600 GeV for Y, where both Y and H are reconstructed as Lorentz-boosted single large-area jets. The results are interpreted in the context of the next-to-minimal supersymmetric standard model and also in an extension of the standard model with two additional singlet scalar fields. The 95% confidence level upper limits for the production cross section vary between 0.1 and 150 fb depending on the X and Y masses, and represent a significant improvement over results from previous searches.SCOAP3

Precision measurement of the W boson decay branching fractions in proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV

The leptonic and inclusive hadronic decay branching fractions of the W boson are measured using proton-proton collision data collected at ffiffi s p ¼ 13 TeV by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1. Events characterized by the production of one or two W bosons are selected and categorized based on the multiplicity and flavor of reconstructed leptons, the number of jets, and the number of jets identified as originating from the hadronization of b quarks. A binned maximum likelihood estimate of the W boson branching fractions is performed simultaneously in each event category. The measured branching fractions of the W boson decaying into electron, muon, and tau lepton final states are ð10.83 0.10Þ%, ð10.94 0.08Þ%, and ð10.77 0.21Þ%, respectively, consistent with lepton flavor universality for the weak interaction. The average leptonic and inclusive hadronic decay branching fractions are estimated to be ð10.89 0.08Þ% and ð67.32 0.23Þ%, respec tively. Based on the hadronic branching fraction, three standard model quantities are subsequently derived: the sum of squared elements in the first two rows of the Cabibbo–Kobayashi–Maskawa (CKM) matrix P ij jVijj 2 ¼ 1.984 0.021, the CKM element jVcsj ¼ 0.967 0.011, and the strong coupling constant at the W boson mass scale, αSðm2 WÞ ¼ 0.095 0.033

Search for supersymmetry in final states with two or three soft leptons and missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

ArXiv ePrint: 2111.06296 (https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.06296).Copyright © 2022 CERN, for the benefit of the CMS Collaboration. A search for supersymmetry in events with two or three low-momentum leptons and missing transverse momentum is performed. The search uses proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV collected in the three-year period 2016–2018 by the CMS experiment at the LHC and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of up to 137 fb−1. The data are found to be in agreement with expectations from standard model processes. The results are interpreted in terms of electroweakino and top squark pair production with a small mass difference between the produced supersymmetric particles and the lightest neutralino. For the electroweakino interpretation, two simplified models are used, a wino-bino model and a higgsino model. Exclusion limits at 95% confidence level are set on χ∼02/χ∼±1 masses up to 275 GeV for a mass difference of 10 GeV in the wino-bino case, and up to 205(150) GeV for a mass difference of 7.5 (3) GeV in the higgsino case. The results for the higgsino are further interpreted using a phenomenological minimal supersymmetric standard model, excluding the higgsino mass parameter μ up to 180 GeV with the bino mass parameter M1 at 800 GeV. In the top squark interpretation, exclusion limits are set at top squark masses up to 540 GeV for four-body top squark decays and up to 480 GeV for chargino-mediated decays with a mass difference of 30 GeV.SCOAP3

Search for long-lived particles using out-of-time trackless jets in proton-proton collisions at √s =13TeV

A search for long-lived particles decaying in the outer regions of the CMS silicon tracker or in the calorimeters is presented. The search is based on a data sample of proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC in 2016–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. A novel technique, using nearly trackless and out-of-time jet information combined in a deep neural network discriminator, is employed to identify decays of long-lived particles. The results are interpreted in a simplified model of chargino-neutralino production, where the neutralino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle, is long-lived, and decays to a gravitino and either a Higgs or Z boson. This search is most sensitive to neutralino proper decay lengths of approximately 0.5 m, for which masses up to 1.18 TeV are excluded at 95% confidence level. The current search is the best result to date in the mass range from the kinematic limit imposed by the Higgs boson mass up to 1.8 TeV.SCOAP